Sluggish trade to slow emerging Asia growth: Fitch
ABS-CBN News
Posted at Dec 07 2016 11:48 AM
http://news.abs-cbn.com/business/12/07/16/sluggish-trade-to-slow-emerging-asia-growth-fitch
MANILA – Slugging global trade and a gradual cooling down of the Chinese economy is expected to slow growth in emerging Asia, debt-watcher Fitch Ratings said.
Emerging Asia is expected to grow by 6.4 percent in 2017 and 5.9 percent in 2018, from a projected 6.5-percent expansion this year, Fitch said in a statement.
While the average expansion was below the 7.8 percent recorded between 2010 and 2014, emerging Asian economies are still expected to outperform other regions, Fitch said.
Increased infrastructure spending is expected to sustain robust growth in countries like the Philippines, the ratings agency said.
The outlook for global trade is “bleak” with US president-elect Donald Trump’s promise to quit a Pacific trade pact once he assumes office in January, Fitch said.
A strong dollar and an upcoming interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve will likely weigh on economies with high external debt levels, it said.
Fitch expects governance and domestic political
developments to remain a rating driver in a number of EM Asia countries, including Malaysia,
Philippines and Thailand, while security issues are likely to remain in focus in Bangladesh and
Pakistan.
Fitch expects all countries in the region, except Mongolia, to exhibit higher
GDP growth rates in 2017 than the medians of their respective rating categories. The growth
outlook is particularly strong in Bangladesh, India and the Philippines.
Among EM Asia entities, Fitch
expects a widening of the fiscal balance in 2017 only in the Philippines (to -3.0% of GDP in
2017 from -2.4% of GDP in 2016).
